Escalating Conflict in Sudan: Key Players, Causes, and Regional Implications

Sudan, one of the largest countries in Africa, has recently experienced escalating conflict between the Sudanese armed forces led by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under the command of Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). The power struggle between these factions has its roots in the years before the 2019 uprising that ousted dictator Omar al-Bashir.

Fighting began in mid-April 2023 after the army perceived the redeployment of RSF members as a threat . With the conflict predominantly taking place in urban areas, civilians have become unwitting victims, and over 400 civilian deaths have been reported.

One of the most significant events in the ongoing conflict was the capture of a biolab in Khartoum, Sudan, containing contagious disease pathogens, including polio, measles, and cholera isolates, by fighters. The occupation poses a significant biological risk, and lab technicians are currently unable to access the National Public Health Laboratory.

Former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was moved to a military hospital in Khartoum following fighting that engulfed Kober Prison, where he was being held. Thousands of inmates escaped during a jailbreak, contributing to a growing sense of lawlessness in Khartoum.

The conflict between the army and the RSF stems from tensions following al-Bashir's ousting in 2019 and the subsequent establishment of a joint military-civilian government. The rivalry between Gen Burhan and Gen Dagalo intensified after a coup in October 2021.

The origins of the RSF trace back to the infamous Janjaweed militia, which was accused of ethnic cleansing in Darfur. Under Gen Dagalo's command, the RSF has grown into a powerful force, intervening in conflicts in Yemen and Libya and controlling some of Sudan's gold mines.

Sudan's strategic location has attracted regional power plays, complicating the chances of a successful transition to civilian-led government. Political upheavals and conflicts in neighboring countries such as Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan have impacted the region, with Sudan's relationship with Ethiopia being particularly strained over disputed farmland along their border. Major geopolitical dimensions are also at play, with Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other powers vying for influence in Sudan.

In addition to regional implications, the ongoing conflict has created tensions over civilian demands for military oversight and the integration of the RSF into the regular armed forces, as well as the transfer of lucrative military holdings in agriculture, trade, and other industries. Pursuing justice for war crimes allegations in the Darfur conflict and the killings of pro-democracy protesters in June 2019, as well as delays in official investigations, remain points of contention.

As the power struggle in Sudan unfolds, with regional implications due to its strategic location, another major factor contributing to the conflict is the gold rush that has swept across the Sahel region, further complicating the political landscape. Sudan is strategically positioned at the crossroads of the Sahel and the Red Sea/Horn of Africa regions, which has made it a focal point for geopolitics and conflict.

The economy of Sudan, particularly its gold reserves, plays a significant role in fueling this rivalry. The Sahel region has experienced a gold rush since 2012 due to the discovery of a rich vein of gold that stretches across the Sahara from east to west. This gold rush has led to increased gold mining in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Sudan, resulting in the growth of trade and communication networks in the region.

Sudan, located in the eastern part of the Sahel gold belt, has a long history of mining, but its economy is mainly dependent on agriculture. Nonetheless, exporting goods like gold is crucial for generating hard cash to pay for imports and state taxes. Control over gold is, therefore, of significant importance in Sudan's politics and the wider Sahel region.

Gold sales eventually accounted for 70% of Sudan's exports, but the Central Bank struggled to control gold production and exports, resulting in widespread smuggling, primarily to Dubai. Various organized groups, such as jihadists, military juntas, and Russian mercenary forces, have shown interest in the region's gold, further complicating the political landscape.

Hemeti, a key player in Sudan's gold economy, rose to prominence by seizing control of the Jebel Amir region through force and strategic alliances. His control over natural resources and ruthless tactics have made him an influential figure both nationally and internationally. As the power struggle in Sudan continues, it highlights the complex relationship between regional actors, foreign powers, and the exploitation of natural resources in the country.

The international community has expressed concerns that the fighting in Sudan could lead to further fragmentation, political turbulence, and involvement of neighboring states. Diplomats have been attempting to get the two generals to negotiate, but their efforts have not yet succeeded. The UK, US, and EU have called for a ceasefire and talks to resolve the crisis, and many countries are now focused on evacuating their citizens from Sudan.

The escalating conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF is rooted in historical power struggles and the country's strategic location. With civilians caught in the crossfire, regional implications, and international concerns growing, it is crucial to find a resolution and ensure a transition towards a stable, civilian-led government.